June 2023 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Up 1.6% from the Previous Month and Down 0.9% from the Same Month Last Year

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

BTS 36-23

May 2023 TSI Infographic

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 1.6% in June from May, rising for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS). From June 2022 to June 2023 the index fell -0.9% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Line chart showing freight transportation services index for June 2020 through June 2023

The level of for-hire freight shipments in June measured by the Freight TSI (139.0) was 1.6% below the all-time high level of 141.2 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The May index was revised to 136.8 from 137.6 in last month's release.

BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for June next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The May passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight for June is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI increased in June due to seasonally adjusted increases in rail intermodal, rail carload, air freight, and trucking, while water and pipeline were down.

The June increase came in the context of mixed results for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was down 0.5% in June, reflecting decreases of 0.3% in manufacturing, 0.2% in mining and 2.6% in utilities. Housing starts were down 8.0% while personal income increased by 0.3%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 0.9 points to 46.0, indicating a decline in manufacturing.

Although the June Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the May index is now being released. The index increased 1.5% from April to May. Seasonally adjusted transit and air passenger increased while rail passenger declined.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for 24 months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 39th consecutive month.

Trend: The June freight index increase was the second consecutive increase, following two months of decline, leaving the index 0.5% below the February level. This was only the third increase in the last nine months, for an overall decrease of 1.4% since September 2022. It was the 13th month-over-month increase in the last 22 months, for a total increase of 3.6% since August 2021. The June Freight TSI is 12.1% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has increased month-over-month in 22 of the 38 months since that low. The index is now 1.6% below its previous record level of 141.2 set in August 2019, despite increasing month-over-month in 22 of the 46 months since that all-time high.

For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in June 2023 (139.0) were 46.3% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The June 2023 level was 1.6% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (141.2).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.6% in June compared to the end of 2022 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 1.4% in the five years from June 2018 and are up 19.3% in the 10 years from June 2013 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: June 2023 for-hire freight shipments were down 0.9% from June 2022 (Tables 4, 5).

2nd quarter changes: The freight TSI rose 0.4% in the 1st quarter, rose 1.2% in the 2nd quarter (Table 10).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the July 2023 index is scheduled for September 14, 2023.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months

	Freight TSI
	Current release	Previous month's release	Percent change
Jun-22	140.2	140.3	-0.07
Jul-22	140.0	139.9	0.07
Aug-22	141.0	141.0	0.00
Sep-22	141.0	140.9	0.07
Oct-22	140.0	140.0	0.00
Nov-22	137.0	137.0	0.00
Dec-22	136.8	136.8	0.00
Jan-23	136.3	136.4	-0.07
Feb-23	139.7	139.7	0.00
Mar-23	137.3	137.3	0.00
Apr-23	136.0	136.0	0.00
May-23	136.8	137.6	-0.58

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since December 2022
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight
	Index	Percent change
December	136.8	-0.1
January	136.3	-0.4
February	139.7	2.5
March	137.3	-1.7
April	136.0	-0.9
May	136.8	0.6
June	139.0	1.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2023

Year	Month of peak	Value at peak	Month of low	Value at low
2009	December	101.9	April	95.0
2019	August	141.2	December	136.1
2020	January	135.7	April	124.0
2021	December	137.7	February	133.7
2022	August	141.0	December	136.8
2023 (thru June)	February	139.7	April	136.0