Smart contract platforms have been around for over a decade, yet we still don’t see many mainstream users or use cases outside of speculation. Contrast that with AI; ChatGPT launched and within 2 months it had over 100m users. Is it any wonder that VC’s stopped attending our events) My expectation is that Web3 technology could become used in the same way we use cloud computing today. Not something end users think about directly, but an essential tool in the developer’s toolbox. In the future, if you wanted to create a blog, then storing data on-chain could be easier than using a database on a cloud server. The question is: how do we get there?
Web3 As Invisible InfrastructureOne possible answer is that we may be looking in the wrong place. AI captured mainstream attention because its product conversational text generation is inherently visible, intuitive, and accessible. By contrast, Web3's true destiny may be to fade into the background, functioning behind the scenes as a tool in the developers toolbox.
But we're not there yet. To reach that stage, a number of gaps need to be bridged. Four Steps to Unlocking Web3 AdoptionBetter UX Wallets, seed phrases, gas fees these are deal breakers for normal users. Account abstraction, passkeys, and seamless onboarding can make blockchain interaction feel no more complex than logging into Gmail. Interoperability There is a certain amount of fragmentation within the industry. I need one wallet to interact with this chain then another to interact with an app on another chain. I need different tokens to pay tx fees etc. This needs to consolidate around expected standards and work seamlessly in the background to deliver a simple frontend experience. Clear Regulations Since Trump came in and Gensler left this has been going in the right direction. There is still some way to go and businesses may still be hesitating to integrate blockchain tech when the legal and political ground is shifting beneath them. Clear, consistent frameworks would provide confidence for builders and users alike. Easy Onboarding We need ways to onboard users from web2 > web3. The solidity gamified teaching app cryptozombies onboarded an entire generation of blockchain developers. Today tools like remix, speed run ethereum and solidity by example are useful for new developers but perhaps we could do more to help devs entering the space for the first time. Same Thing, DecentralizedWeb3 has to offer more than "the same thing, but decentralized" Its value lies in solving issues like:
These are problems Web2 infrastructure can't address without relying on a central authority. ChatGPT succeeded through consumer virality. Cloud computing succeeded quietly through developer adoption. Web3 could plausibly follow the latter path: becoming invisible infrastructure long before average users realise they're interacting with it. Not every technology needs to be consumer facing. TCP/IP didn't succeed because end users demanded it it succeeded because it powered applications people wanted. Perhaps Web3 doesn't need a killer app or ChatGPT moment in order to succeed. What it needs is utility. If developers find that blockchains make building faster, cheaper, and more resilient, adoption will happen organically.
Bitcoin is testing support here and investors conviction in the continuation of the bull market. There might be some support at $107 and $100k but below that it starts to look quite dark for anyone that is hard coded to the four year cycle. Sentiment seems fairly neutral and will follow price action. It’s hard to believe we made a new all time high just a few months back and are only 10% off that. No one using less than 10x leverage is feeling much pain here but there is a growing lack of certainty and conviction in the market. Base case remains the same, four year cycle is a thing until it isn’t but reduced volatility over the long-term (decades) will make it look like a smooth grind up as fiat currency trends towards zero and blockchain technology gains adoption.
The exponential line on this chart keeps getting moved further and further to the right to give it “breathing room”, if it get’s invalidated completely then perhaps some momentum type strategies and long-term whales will exit causing a capitulation event. We aren’t there yet though and my hope is that we have at least a few more weeks or months of upward momentum and things get frothy. I’m sure we will all definitely take some chips off the table rather than move up the risk curve on the next pump… Social links are below and if you enjoyed this newsletter I would appreciate it if you could share this content
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