Pin the Blame on the Donkey

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

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The voice of the world in numbers

Aug. 12, 2025

Welcome to Front Page, Gallup's indispensable intelligence distilled into five charts that give leaders the insights they need to make their most important decisions.

1. Pin the Blame on the Donkey

Dot Matrix Chart: Democrats lose ground with nearly everyone.

The Data: Just 34% of U.S. adults view the Democratic Party favorably, the lowest Gallup has measured for the group in its trend since 1992. Americans' favorable rating of the Republican Party is slightly better, but still low, at 38%.

The Trend: For Dems, the prior low was 36% in November 2014, after the party lost its majority in the U.S. Senate in that year's midterm election, which gave the Republican Party control of both houses of Congress.

Line Chart: U.S. party identifiers' favorable ratings of their own party, recent trend.

The Data: Seventy-three percent of Democrats view their own party favorably — the lowest on record for that party and a 14-percentage-point drop from November 2024. On the other hand, 91% of Republicans hold a positive view of the GOP.

Independents' View: Political independents have no preference for either party, with just 27% rating the Democratic Party favorably and 28% the Republican Party. Independents' rating of Democrats nearly ties the low of 25% from November 2014. Their rating of Republicans is not their lowest but is down from 37% right after the 2024 election.

Line Chart: Recent trend in U.S. party identification and leaning, based on quarterly averages.

The Data: Despite their record-low favorability, Democrats have picked up a few points in party identification. In Q2 2025, 46% of U.S. adults identified as or leaned Democratic, compared with 43% identifying as or leaning Republican. This is a reversal from the GOP advantage throughout most of 2023-2024, including Q4 2024, when Republicans had a four-point advantage around the time of the election.

Party Dynamics: The three-point increase in Democratic affiliation between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, from 43% to 46%, is entirely due to more independents saying they lean toward the Democratic Party (up four points), not because more Americans are identifying as Democrats outright (down one point).

The Data: Thirty-nine percent of U.S. adults now approve of the Supreme Court — the lowest overall rating in Gallup's trend.

By Party: Approval among Democrats stands at 11%, the lowest rating of the court ever recorded for any party group. Independents also hit their record low, at 34%. The court's approval has been below 50% since 2021, following the solidification of its 6-3 conservative majority.

More Data

5. SCOTUS Was Partisan in 1937

Split Bar Chart: 1937: Support for Franklin D. Roosevelt's court packing plan.

The Data: In March 1937, a month after President Franklin D. Roosevelt introduced a plan to add one new justice for every sitting Supreme Court member over age 70 who declined to retire, 47% of Americans agreed with expanding the Supreme Court, while 53% opposed it. Support was sharply partisan: 70% of Democrats favored the proposal, while 92% of Republicans opposed it.

Historical Context: At the time, FDR's proposal was widely viewed as an attempt to secure favorable rulings for New Deal legislation. Though public opinion remained divided for months, the plan lost momentum and was ultimately rejected by the Senate as the court began upholding Roosevelt's policies.

Gallup Vault

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