It has been a volatile couple of weeks as Bitcoin rallied up to $99k, fuelled by Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy deploying billions of dollars of capital into Bitcoin like he’s trying to win a custody battle for Satoshi’s love. The frantic bidding slowed down on Monday and we saw Bitcoin drop back faster than Wi-Fi during a Zoom call. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t (and still am) a little bit panicky about the potential for it to fall off a cliff.
Saylor was deploying in excess of $1B a day at the peak and OG whales and short sellers soaked it up. It was a very risk defined trade for shorts with stops within 1% above the $100k level. R/R on that makes it the last viable level where we should see significant short interest pile in. Currently Bitcoin sits at $93k and market structure on low time frames has shifted to a downtrend with lower highs and lows. Shorts look comfy and aren’t being forced to close their positions. I expect a lot of stops have been moved down in to the $96-97k region to lock in a profit and close on any higher high. This could provide a pocket of liquidity and fuel to accelerate any move into and above this region. If Bitcoin can claw it’s way back up to $100k, that level will look less appealing for shorts each time it’s approached and a breakout will eventually become as inevitable as your families insistence you “got lucky” at thanks giving dinner. A month or so ago there was lots of talk about Middle East sovereign wealth funds allocating capital, specifically the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Perhaps these were just rumours and the bids were all Saylor. I still suspect there is at least one other significant party competing on the buy side. MicroStrategy share price has put in a Burj Khalifa dropping 35% in the last week. This will limit Saylor’s ability to raise capital but I am in no doubt he will continue to do everything in his ability to accumulate/fomo Bitcoin as fast as possible. Demand is still relatively strong and we saw the first signs of a rotation in to altcoins over the weekend. This is very welcome, especially the significant gains for a certain network that I’ve had the pleasure of working with recently. It restores some faith in the universe that good results eventually come to good people doing good things and their work on financial inclusion certainly qualifies. ETH/BTC is yoyoing like a bipolar squirrel in a nut factory. If the bull market continues I expect a pretty sharp move back up to 0.05 and perhaps beyond. Worse case scenario is pretty bleak, if Bitcoin really dumps, Eth and all the other alts will dump more.
I had my first price target at $95k and I couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger and realise profits. If the cycle is done for another 4 years this will be the biggest mistake I’ve made since that night out in Bangkok. Greed and fear are significant blockers to success and the former is at play here. Top signals are lighting up like Xmas tree lights but I can’t shake the feeling that there’s more to come. The potential for Bitcoin to break above $100k, ETH/BTC to put in some candles and alts to start popping off like champagne corks at a Diddy party gives me some semi-sane justification for extended holding and remaining flexible.
If Bitcoin goes back to $80k, $70k or even $40k I’m happy to just wait longer, even if that is another long drawn out bear market. Others might not be in the same position and there could be a rush to the exits if it really starts to look like the bull market is over. I’ve seen a few “see you in 4 years” posts on X but sentiment is still positive for now. So we wait and we shall see what happens next… P.S. If you haven’t seen me melt a laptop with some fireworks yet, this is worth a watch 
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