January 2023 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

By rahmat hidayat

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

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BTS 11-23

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

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January 2023 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

January 2023 TSI Infographic

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.2% in January from December, falling after a one-month increase, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS). From January 2022 to January 2023 the index fell 0.7%. (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Line chart showing Freight Transportation Services Index for January 2020 through January 2023

The level of for-hire freight shipments in January measured by the Freight TSI (137.8) was 3.0% below the all-time high level of 142.1 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The December index was revised to 138.1 from 138.7 in last month's release.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for January. The passenger index for January is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to December 2023. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight and waterborne for January are also a statistical estimate. Since air freight and waterborne make up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The December passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased in January due to seasonally adjusted decreases in rail intermodal, water, air freight, and pipeline, while rail carload, and trucking grew.

The January decrease came in the context of mixed results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was unchanged in January, reflecting increases of 2.0% in mining and 1.0% in manufacturing, while utilities declined by 9.9%. Housing starts were down 4.5% while personal income increased by 0.6%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 1.0 point to 47.4, indicating contraction in manufacturing.

Although the January Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the December index is now being released. The index increased 0.1% from November to December. Seasonally adjusted transit and rail passenger increased while air passenger declined.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for nineteen months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 34th consecutive month.

Trend: The January freight index decrease followed a previous increase and was equal to its November level. This was the fourth decrease in seven months, for a total decrease of 2.2% since June. It was the fifth month-over-month decrease in seventeen months, for a total increase of 2.4% since August 2021. The January Freight TSI is 10.1% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has increased in 21 of the 33 months since that low. The index is now 2.4% below its previous record level of 142.1 set in August 2019, despite increasing in 21 of the 41 months since that earlier peak.

For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in January 2023 (137.8) were 45.1% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The January 2023 level was 3.0% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (142.1) (Table 1A).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.2% in January compared to the end of 2022 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 4.6% in the five years from January 2018 and are up 20.5% in the 10 years from January 2013 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: January 2023 for-hire freight shipments were down 0.7% from January 2022 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the February 2023 index is scheduled for April 12^th.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months

	Freight TSI
	Current release	Previous month's release	Percent change
Jan-22	138.8	139.2	-0.29
Feb-22	140.1	140.2	-0.07
Mar-22	140.8	140.7	0.07
Apr-22	139.6	139.4	0.14
May-22	140.2	140.1	0.07
Jun-22	141.0	140.8	0.14
Jul-22	140.6	140.6	0.00
Aug-22	141.7	141.5	0.14
Sep-22	141.8	141.7	0.07
Oct-22	140.6	140.6	0.00
Nov-22	137.8	137.9	-0.07
Dec-22	138.1	138.7	-0.43