Aside from an initial drop in U.S. stocks on Monday after the latest ratcheting-up of Trump's trade war, traders seem to be taking the threat of sharply higher tariffs in their stride.
By and large, it's been business as usual on Tuesday for markets, now well-versed in the nebulous and fast-changing trade policy approach the U.S. has adopted under Trump's leadership, and particularly since his fateful April 2 "Liberation Day" announcements.
The initial deadline of July 9 has been replaced by August 1, providing some breathing room.
S&P 500 futures are barely in positive territory, while Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 was pretty flat for most of the European morning.
Even the VIX volatility index is down a touch, having remained largely range-bound for the past two months.
One area still sensitive to the twist and turns of Trump's tariffs, however, is gold, which has soared to an all-time high in 2025 as traders hedged against trade policy uncertainty.
So while the rest of the market yawns at the latest see-sawing in Trump's global trade war, is the yellow material one area where stronger views - and bigger price swings - could materialise?
Citi analysts warn that with no big trade war and U.S. economic data continuing to remain robust, gold could drop a steep 20% from current levels of around $3,300 an ounce. But even that decline would keep the price of gold a sliver above where it started the year.
Other analysts remain bullish on the precious metal as a hedge given high geopolitical risks and a general move to diversify away from U.S. assets.
One segment of the market that did not hit the snooze button on Tuesday are European spirit makers, up after daily Italian newspaper Il Messaggero reported there is a possibility wines and alcohol could be completely excluded from tariffs, amid EU-U.S. trade negotiations.
With Remy Cointreau, Campari and Pernod Ricard up between 1.7% to 3.4%, it might be worth keeping an eye on U.S. peers for some read-across.
The euro is maintaining its position as a beneficiary of the trade war, up 2% against the U.S. dollar in the past two weeks and rising 0.3% on Tuesday against a faltering dollar. Markets think the European Union is likely to dodge the latest round of Trump's trade threats. So far, so good.
Even the global recession fears which flared up at the prospect of a worsening trade war have largely receded, and with the U.S. employment picture holding up and markets anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts on the horizon, it will take more than a few strongly-worded letters to rattle investors.
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