Big Oil sees smaller earnings on low prices

By rahmat hidayat

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

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Power Up

By Liz Hampton, U.S. Energy Editor

Hello Power Up readers! Oil prices were holding near their highest level in three weeks on Monday as the market awaited a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump on Russia. Global Brent futures fell 70 cents to $69.66 a barrel on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $67.56, down 85 cents after Trump said he would impose tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy oil from Russia if a deal is not made in 50 days.

This comes after Trump said on Sunday that he would send Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine, and a bipartisan U.S. bill that would hit Russia with sanctions gained momentum last week in Congress.

Brent had gained 3% last week, while WTI was up 2.2% after the International Energy Agency said the global oil market was tighter than it appears.

Top energy headlines

Exxon Mobil signaled lower earnings for the second quarter. The oil major, which reports on August 1, posted upstream earnings of $6.8 billion last quarter. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Lower oil prices bite

Another earnings season is just around the corner and major oil companies are flagging a hit from lower energy prices. Brent oil prices averaged $66.71 a barrel during the April-June quarter, an 11% decline from the prior quarter, while natural gas prices were off 9%.

British oil major BP said on Friday it expects an impact from lower oil and gas prices, even as its output is set to be higher than expected.

BP, which reports on August 5, said it got $67.88 a barrel for its oil during the quarter, down from $75.73 a barrel the prior quarter. It expects its gas trading results to be average.

Rival Shell, which reports on July 31, is expecting weakness from its gas trading and chemicals business, which suffered unplanned maintenance at its Monaca polymer plant in the United States.

U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil has also signaled that lower oil and gas prices will hit its second-quarter profits by roughly $1.5 billion versus the prior quarter. Wall Street is anticipating adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share, versus $1.76 last quarter.

U.S. oil company Occidental Petroleum Corp warned on Monday that its U.S. Gulf of Mexico output was curtailed during the second quarter due to third-party constraints, extended maintenance and schedule-related delays.

In other news, on Friday the U.S. Department of Energy said it would provide Exxon Mobil up to 1 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for its Baton Rouge refinery after a zinc contamination to Mars crude.

Exxon had told counterparts it would not buy the medium sour crude until the issue was resolved, Arathy Somasekhar reported last week. The SPR oil was provided to keep fuel supplies stable in Louisiana and on the Gulf Coast. Exxon will resupply the SPR at no cost to the taxpayer.

U.S. oil major Chevron said the contamination came following the start-up of a new offshore well. Chevron is working to resolve the issues and does not expect an impact to its current production guidance.

Essential reading

The U.S. oil rig count continued its downward trend last week, according to new data from energy services firm Baker Hughes. The number of rigs operating fell by two to 537 and are now at their lowest level since October 2021. That marks an 8% decline from last year's levels.

The European Commission has proposed a floating price cap on Russian oil that is 15% under the average market price of crude in the previous three months. The push for a lower price cap comes after a decline in oil futures made the current $60-a-barrel level largely irrelevant.

U.S. biofuel makers will consume more than half of all soybean oil produced in the United States next year, in part due to new policy changes, Karl Plume reported on Friday. These include higher blending mandates and a curb on foreign biofuel imports and feedstocks. The USDA raised its outlook for soybean oil use by biofuel makers for this year and next to 15.5 billion pounds, up 11.5% from its forecast last month.

China has set its first renewable standards for steel, cement and polysilicon, its National Development and Reform Commission said on Friday. These standards set targets for the percentage of power consumption that various industries must obtain from renewables and had previously only affected companies involved in power trading and electrolytical aluminum.

U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to put a 50% tariff on copper imports has raised alarm bells in the U.S. auto sector, Nick Carey and Nora Eckert report. Trump's tariff pushed prices on the U.S. platform COMEX to a record $5.6820 a pound, or $12,526 a metric ton, marking a premium of $2,920 a ton over the price on the London Metal Exchange. Some carmakers, including Ford, have already announced hikes to mitigate other Trump-induced tariffs.

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