A look at the day ahead in European and global markets |
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By Wayne Cole, Chief Correspondent, Treasury |
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So, apparently, they have the concept of a plan for a proposal on a framework for a deal to break the latest U.S.-China trade impasse. Which was only needed because President Trump sent that tweet claiming Beijing had broken the old deal. This deal now needs to be approved by Trump and Chairman Xi, and then implemented. At least the Chinese side thought the talks were "rational", which was a step forward. |
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Members of the media gather outside Lancaster House on the second day scheduled for trade talks between the U.S. and China, in London, Britain, June 10, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville |
Details were scant, though the U.S. team did claim that it would resolve China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets. What Beijing got in return was not yet clear. Neither was it clear whether this truce would last any longer than the last one, which might be why the early market response was less than enthusiastic. U.S. and European stock futures were all down between 0.2% and 0.6%, and Asian shares modestly firmer. There is still the small matter of whether the April 2 levies are actually legal, with a federal appeals court allowing the tariffs to remain in effect while it reviews a lower court decision blocking them. |
Graphics are produced by Reuters. |
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The dollar and Treasuries were little changed as the U.S. CPI looms later in the day and any upside surprise would fan stagflationary fears, to the detriment of both markets. Analysts assume lower energy prices will keep the headline rise to 0.2%, while the core is seen up 0.3%. Attention will be on whether tariffs show up in goods prices, though the full impact is likely to appear from June onwards. Measures of volatility suggest investors really aren't prepared for a high number, so anything in line will be a relief. Treasuries also have a 10-year auction to weather, with the focus on the share taken by indirect bidders which include foreign central banks. The latter took a hefty 71% of the May sale, while primary dealers got just 8.9%. A repeat performance would be warmly welcomed. |
Graphics are produced by Reuters. |
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Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: |
- ECB wage tracker. Appearances by ECB council members Gabriel Makhlouf; Piero Cipollone; Philip Lane and Claudia Buch; policymaker Yiannis Stournaras
- British finance minister Rachel Reeves releases spending review
- U.S. CPI data for May
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. |
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