Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Plus: Voter Enthusiasm, Election Importance, Campaign Reach, Issues that Matter, Voters' Decisions
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 | The voice of the world in numbers | | | Nov. 5, 2024 | | | Welcome to Front Page, where we break down Gallup's latest insights on our constantly evolving world. Here are the five insights you shouldn't miss this week: | | | | In recognition of Election Day in the U.S. today, Gallup presents five scene setters that shed light on the why and how behind Americans' vote this year. | | | | | | | 1. Fundamentals of Americans' Election Mindset | | | | The Data: This rundown of several traditional election indicators shows a mixed picture. Americans are unhappy with the status quo on the economy, the direction of the country and President Joe Biden's leadership — which would tend to favor the Republican Party with a Democratic administration in office. Yet, they rate the Democratic and Republican Parties similarly, while looking a bit more favorably on the Democratic presidential nominee than the Republican. Party Differences: Delving into partisan differences on these metrics shows Republicans and Democrats expressing largely opposite views. Independents share Republicans' displeasure with the state of the nation while rating Harris and Trump about equally. Latest Data | 2. Voter Enthusiasm Surges | | | | The Data: Seventy percent of registered voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, similar to the 71% measured in August but higher than the 56% from March. Biden to Harris: The increase in enthusiasm this summer was largely a result of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents expressing heightened enthusiasm after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, surging from 57% in March to 79% in August and holding at 77% today. Full Story | 3. Americans Feel 2024 Is an Important Election | | | | The Data: Seventy-seven percent of registered voters strongly agree that the stakes in this presidential election are higher than in previous years, and 68% say they are afraid of what will happen if their preferred candidate does not win. The Trend: Both measures are in the upper range of what Gallup has measured for presidential elections since 1996. Election Data | 4. Harris Campaign Reaching More Americans | | | | The Data: More registered voters have been contacted by Kamala Harris' campaign (42%) than by Donald Trump's (35%), as of Gallup's Oct. 14-27 poll. Past Election Years: When Gallup asked the same question in the 2008 and 2012 election years, roughly one in three voters reported being contacted by the major-party campaigns, although Barack Obama's 2008 figure was somewhat higher. Harris' campaign has reached more Democratic voters than Trump's campaign has reached Republicans. Read More | 5. What Matters to Voters, Split by Party Lines | | | | The Data: There is no overlap between Republican and Democratic voters in the top five issues ranked as extremely important to their vote. Republican Issues: The economy is the top-ranked issue for Republican voters, along with immigration, terrorism, crime and taxes. Democratic Issues: For Democrats, democracy in the U.S., the types of Supreme Court justices the candidates would pick, abortion, healthcare and education are the five most important voting issues. Full Story | (Bonus!) Most U.S. Voters Have Made Up Minds Before Election Day | | | | The Data: By October, 93% of registered voters in the U.S. had made up their minds about whom they would vote for in the U.S. election. Up From August: This is up 10 percentage points from August, largely driven by an increase in Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters. In August, while 90% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters had already decided, only 78% of Republicans and Republican leaners were sure of their vote. Read More | | | |
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