July 2024 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Down 0.2% from the Previous Month and Down 0.5% from the Same Month Last YearThursday, September 12, 2024 BTS 42-24
The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.2% in July from June, falling for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From July 2023 to July 2024 the index fell 0.5% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).
The level of for-hire freight shipments in July measured by the Freight TSI (139.0) was 1.7% below the all-time high of 141.4 reached in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data. The June index was revised to 139.3 from 138.6 in last month's release. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers revised their waterborne data for all months in 2022 which resulted in the freight TSI all-time high changing from August 2022 to August 2019. Table B outlines the TSI changes due to the change in waterborne traffic statistics for 2022. BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for July next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The June passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight for July is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons. Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased in July due to seasonally adjusted decreases in pipeline and water, while rail carload, rail intermodal, trucking and air freight grew. The July decrease came in the context of declines in several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index declined by 0.6% in July, reflecting decreases of 3.7% in utilities, and 0.3% in manufacturing while mining was unchanged. Housing starts were down 6.8% and Personal Income increased by 0.3%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 1.7 points to 46.8, for a fourth month of contraction in manufacturing. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Although the July Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the June index is now being released. The index increased 1.5% from May to June. Seasonally adjusted transit and air passenger were up, while rail passenger declined. The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-seven months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 52nd consecutive month. Trend: The July freight index decrease was the fourth in five months, leaving the index 0.2% above its level in February 2024. It was the second consecutive decrease, leaving the index 0.4% below its level in May 2024. The index increased 4.3% since August 2021. The July Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 11.7%; the index increased month-over-month in 26 of the 51 months since that low. For additional historical data, go to TSI data. Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in July 2024 (139.0) were 46.2% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.1). The July 2024 level was 1.7% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2019 (141.4) (Table 1A). Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were at the same level as in July compared to the end of 2023 (Table 3). Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are down 0.2% in the five years from July 2019 and are up 15.3% in the 10 years from July 2014 (Table 5). Same month of previous year: July 2024 for-hire freight shipments were down 0.5% from July 2023 (Tables 4, 5). The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the August 2024 index is scheduled for October 10, 2024. Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added. The seasonal factors for this release reflect the revisions to the waterborne data. BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED. For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months.
Table B: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in 2022
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. NOTE: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported actual values for waterborne freight for 2022 – previously the U.S. Corps of Engineers Data used linear regression models to estimate trends.
Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since January 2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2020-2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. The Corps of Engineers revised the data for waterborne transportation in 2022. This effects 2022 Freight TSI, and Freight TSI in other years, via its impact on seasonal adjustment.
Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2021-2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2021-2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2015-2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Brief Explanation of the TSI The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service. The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation. The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).
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