Increasingly Polarized Populace

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

The voice of the world in numbers

Aug. 27, 2024

Welcome to Front Page, where we break down Gallup's latest insights on our constantly evolving world. Here are the five insights you shouldn't miss this week:

1. Increasingly Polarized Populace

Multiple Line Chart: Americans' political party and ideology in presidential election years.

The Data: Over the past seven U.S. presidential election years, Republicans and Democrats have gravitated toward opposite sides of the political spectrum. As a result, from 2000 to 2024, conservative Republicans have increased from 24% of the population to 30%, while the moderate/liberal Republican share has dwindled from 18% to 15%. Simultaneously, the percentage of Americans identifying as liberal Democrats has risen from 14% to 22%, while moderate/conservative Democrats have shrunk from 33% to 22%.

Methodology: These categories are based on the combination of Americans' leaned party identification — whether they are a Republican or Democrat or an independent who leans toward one party — combined with respondents' self-identification as politically conservative, moderate or liberal.

Party ID Stories

2. Retirement Reality Check

Line Chart: 74% of retired Americans have enough money to live comfortably, and 45% of nonretirees expect to have enough.

The Data: Seventy-four percent of retired Americans report they have enough money to live comfortably, contrasting with the more pessimistic views of those yet to retire. Less than half of nonretirees (45%) expect they will have enough money to live comfortably upon retirement.

Consistent Expectations: This nearly 30-percentage-point gap between expectations and reality is consistent with perceptions Gallup has observed for 23 years in its annual Economy and Personal Finance survey. Moreover, a longitudinal analysis finds that 20 years ago, 54% of adults aged 45 to 60 anticipated having a comfortable retirement — whereas 79% of that same cohort today (now aged 65 to 80) report having enough money to live comfortably.

Bar Chart: Obese Americans perceive more bias in social interactions than those in the

The Data: Fifty-one percent of Americans classified as obese report that in their day-to-day life over the past 12 months, people have acted as if they were superior to them — significantly more than the 39% among those of normal weight who have felt similarly.

Significance Testing: Statistical analyses confirm that obese Americans encounter more bias known as “weightism,” with differences persisting even after adjusting for race/ethnicity, gender and economic status.

Full Analysis

4. Big Business, Little Confidence

Line Chart: The net confidence score in big business in the U.S. is -26 in 2024.

The Data: With 16% of Americans having high confidence in big business and 42% reporting low or no confidence, big business earns a net confidence score of -26. Another 42% not reflected in the index are neutral, expressing “some” confidence in this segment of the economy.

The Trend: Net confidence in big business has not been in positive territory since the early 2000s and remains close to last year's record low of -29.

Big Business Trends

5. Gallup Vault: A Blast From the Past

Bar Chart: 50% of U.S. adults felt they would be unsafe in the event of an atomic war in 1951.

The Data: In 1951, 50% of Americans felt they would be unsafe in the event of an atomic war, with those in larger cities feeling more vulnerable than those in rural areas.

Historical Context: This survey was conducted after the Soviet Union's first atomic bomb test on Aug. 29, 1949, which intensified the U.S.-Soviet arms race and heightened Americans' fears. This week marks the 75^th anniversary of that pivotal event.

Full Story