May 2024 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Up 1.7% from the Previous Month and Up 0.2% from the Same Month Last YearThursday, July 11, 2024 BTS 33-24
The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 1.7% in May from April, rising for the first month after a two-month decline, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From May 2023 to May 2024 the index rose 0.2% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).
The level of for-hire freight shipments in May measured by the Freight TSI (137.8) was 2.8% below the all-time high of 141.8 reached in August 2022 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data. The April index was revised to 135.5 from 134.9 in last month's release. BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for May next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The April passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight and waterborne for May are also a statistical estimate. Since air freight and waterborne make up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight and waterborne estimates included. The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons. Analysis: The Freight TSI increased in May due to seasonally adjusted increases in trucking, air freight, rail intermodal, and water, while rail carload and pipeline declined. The May increase came in the context of mixed results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.7% in May, reflecting increases of 1.7% in utilities, 0.1% in mining, and 0.6% in manufacturing. Housing starts were down 5.7% and personal income increased by 0.5%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 0.5 points to 48.7, for a second month of contraction in manufacturing. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Although the May Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the April index is now being released. The index decreased 0.9% from March to April. Seasonally adjusted transit, and air passenger were down, while rail passenger grew. The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-five months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 50th consecutive month. Trend: The May freight index increase was the second in four months, leaving the index 2.6% above its level in January 2024. It followed decreases in March and April, leaving the index 0.1% below its level in February 2024. The index increased 3.4% since August 2021. The May Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 10.8%; the index increased month-over-month in 27 of the 49 months since that low. For additional historical data, go to TSI data. Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in May 2024 (137.8) were 44.9% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.1). The May 2024 level was 2.8% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2022 (141.8) (Table 1A). Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.7% in May compared to the end of 2023 (Table 3). Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are down 0.2% in the five years from May 2019 and are up 13.7% in the 10 years from May 2014 (Table 5). Same month of previous year: May 2024 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.2% from May 2023 (Tables 4, 5). The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the June 2024 index is scheduled for August 7, 2024. Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added. BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED. For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2021-2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Brief Explanation of the TSI The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service. The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation. The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car). |
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