February 2024 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Up 3.1% from the Previous Month and Down 1.1% from the Same Month Last YearWednesday, April 10, 2024 BTS 16-24
The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 3.1% in February from January, rising for the first month after a one month decline, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS). From February 2023 to February 2024 the index fell 1.1% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).
The level of for-hire freight shipments in February measured by the Freight TSI (138.1) was 2.3% below the all-time high of 141.3 reached in August 2022 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data. The January index was revised to 134.0 from 134.1 in last month's release. BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for February next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The January passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight for February is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons. Analysis: The Freight TSI increased in February due to seasonally adjusted increases in trucking, air freight, rail carload, rail intermodal, and water while pipeline declined. The February increase came in the context of positive results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.1% in February, reflecting increases of 2.2% in mining and 0.9% in manufacturing, while utilities declined by 7.5%. Housing starts were up 10.7% while personal income increased by 0.3%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 1.3 points to 47.8, indicating continued decline in manufacturing. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Although the February Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the January index is now being released. The index decreased 2.8% from December to January. Seasonally adjusted transit and air passenger decline while rail passenger grew. The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-two months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 47th consecutive month. Trend: The February freight index increase was the largest increase since July 2020, a few months after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. It followed a decrease in January, leaving the index 0.1% below its level in December 2023. The index increased 3.7% since August 2021. The February Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 11.3%; the index increased month-over-month in 27 of the 46 months since that low. For additional historical data, go to TSI data. Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in February 2024 (138.1) were 45.4% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The February 2024 level was 2.3% below the historic peak reached in August 2022 (141.3) (Table 1A). Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.1% in February compared to the end of 2023 (Table 3). Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 1.0% in the five years from February 2019 and are up 16.8% in the 10 years from February 2014 (Table 5). Same month of previous year: February 2024 for-hire freight shipments were down 1.1% from February 2023 (Tables 4, 5). The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the March 2024 index is scheduled for May 8, 2024. Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added. BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED. For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months. Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since August 2023 Percent Change from Previous Month(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding. Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2021-2024Percent change from previous month
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2021-2024
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2015-2024Percent change to February from December of the previous year
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-YearPercent Change in the February Freight TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years Percent Change to 2024 (February to February)
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Brief Explanation of the TSI The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel. The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The freight transportation index consists of: For-hire trucking, Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars), Inland waterways transportation, Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and Air freight. The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service. The passenger transportation index consists of: Local transit, Intercity passenger rail, and Passenger air transportation. The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation. The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).
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