Troubling Signs for Biden

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Welcome to Front Page, where we break down Gallup's latest insights on our constantly evolving world. Here are the five insights you shouldn't miss this week:

1. Troubling Signs for Biden

Bar Chart: Presidential job approval, at beginning and end of reelection year, for incumbent U.S. presidents.

As Americans start locking in on the 2024 election, we take a look at public opinion on some critical metrics for incumbent success. While the current readings — like presidential job approval, economic confidence and party ID — are not promising for President Joe Biden, history shows these sentiments can improve by Election Day. But they can also stall or worsen.
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2. Satisfaction With the State of the Union

Bar Chart: U.S. satisfaction in January of reelection year for incumbent U.S. presidents.

As the president gears up for his third State of the Union address, the nation's satisfaction with its current state is underwhelming. At the start of Biden's fourth year in office, only 20% of Americans were satisfied with the direction of the U.S. — and while it's been two decades since a majority were satisfied, former President Donald Trump faced a 41% satisfaction rate at the same point in his presidency.
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3. The Growing Partisan Divide on Reelection

Line Chart: The partisan gap on being better off when incumbent seeking reelection is from their party.

At the end of his 1980 campaign to defeat Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan coined the political zinger, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Incumbents have been scrutinized by that standard ever since, and in Biden's case, it's a split decision — 48% of U.S. adults say they are better off, and 47% say they aren't. However, this masks a partisan spread, with 74% of Democrats versus 22% of Republicans reporting an improvement.
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4. But Why the Disapproval?

Donut Charts: Reasons given by Americans for disapproving of Biden and Trump.

Asking Americans why they approve or disapprove of a president allows for insightful comparisons across administrations. When it comes to Presidents Biden and Trump, the reasons for disapproval couldn't be more different — with policies (particularly immigration and the economy) most often cited by disapprovers of Biden, while mentions of personal character and style dominated mentions by Trump's detractors in 2017.
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5. Where Americans Learn About Black History

Bar Chart: 46% of U.S. adults say they have learned a lot or some about Black culture in school.

The Gallup Center on Black Voices recently looked at where U.S. adults learn about Black Americans' contributions to American culture. While nearly half of Americans say they learned “a lot” or “some” in school (K-12), more say the learning took place outside the classroom. But how do perceptions of the extent to which those contributions are celebrated differ by racial group?
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And that's Front Page!

Mohamed Younis
Editor-in-Chief
Gallup

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