Does Biden Deserve Reelection?

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Welcome to Front Page, where we break down Gallup's latest insights on our constantly evolving world. Here are the insights you shouldn't miss this week:

1. Does Biden Deserve Reelection?

Column Chart: Estimates of whether the past six incumbent U.S. presidents deserved reelection.

One of the most foundational questions we ask the American people to measure the health of their democracy is whether their leader deserves reelection. Today, President Joe Biden ranks below his five most recent predecessors in the public's zeal for him serving a second term. But it's far from a done deal, as our analysis shows some presidents have seen a significant upswing in this sentiment in their fourth year, carrying them to reelection.
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2. But It's Not Just Biden — Democrats Have a Problem

Line Chart: U.S. adults who identify or lean towards the Democratic party, by race and ethnicity.

In our new analysis taking a longer look at political party identification, we find that identifying as a Democrat is at a quarter-century low among Black and Hispanic Americans. It's a blinking red light on the dashboard for Democrats looking to win in November.
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3. Age Isn't Just a Number

Line Chart: U.S. adults who identify or lean towards the Democratic party, by age group.

That blinking red light may be less concerning to Democratic leaders than the warning buzzer going off over the trends by age. Our latest work highlights a sharp decline in adults under 50 years of age identifying as Democratic. This has resulted in Democrats facing an election year with a smaller share of 18- to 29-year-olds and 30- to 49-year-olds identifying as or leaning Democratic than they've had in the past two election cycles.
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4. A Growing College/Noncollege Divide

Line Chart: U.S. adults who identify or lean towards the Democratic party, by education.

Our latest analysis also confirms that a trend we've been watching for over a decade continues to influence party politics. Americans without a college degree — those with some college experience and those with none at all — continue to grow less likely to identify as Democratic, while adults with a postgraduate education grow closer to the Democratic Party. However, after years when college-only grads were in step with postgrads, their preference for the Democratic Party has started to wane.
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5. Pakistan Votes

Line Chart: 70% of Pakistanis say their economic condition is getting worse in 2023.

Last week, the fifth most populous nation on the planet went to the voting booths. With the main contender and former Prime Minister Imran Khan taken out of the race due to a tsunami of criminal charges and multiyear prison sentences, the political turmoil masks a more serious crisis the nation is experiencing, namely economic. In our trend dating back to 2007, Pakistanis have never been as pessimistic about their economy as they are today, leaving Islamabad's next leader to face much greater challenges than an election can solve.
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6. PLUS: Cooking and Wellbeing

Infographic: 58% of people worldwide enjoyed cooking in the past seven days.

On average, 58% of people interviewed across more than 140 countries in 2022 said they enjoyed cooking in the past seven days. In partnership with the Ajinomoto Group out of Japan, we've documented a connection between cooking and sharing meals and our overall wellbeing. Join us for a conversation about what our latest research found, including where people around the world are most and least likely to say they cook or eat with others, and how that affects the overall quality of their lives.
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And that's Front Page!

Mohamed Younis
Editor-in-Chief
Gallup

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