August 2023 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Up 0.2% from the Previous Month and Down 1.9% from the Same Month Last YearThursday, October 12, 2023 BTS 47-23
The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.2% in August from July, rising for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS). From August 2022 to August 2023 the index fell -1.9% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).
The level of for-hire freight shipments in August measured by the Freight TSI (138.5) was 1.9% below the all-time high level of 141.2 in August 2022 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data. The July index was revised to 138.2 from 136.9 in last month's release due to revisions in the data source for trucking. BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for August next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The July passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight for August is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons. Analysis: The Freight TSI increased in August due to seasonally adjusted increases in trucking, air freight, water, and pipeline while rail intermodal and rail carload were down. The August increase came in the context of positive results for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was up 0.4% in August, reflecting increases of 0.1% in manufacturing, 1.4% in mining and 0.9% in utilities. Housing starts were down 11.3% while personal income increased by 0.4%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 1.2 points to 47.6, indicating that the contraction in manufacturing is stabilizing. Although the August Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the July index is now being released. The index increased 0.3% from June to July. Seasonally adjusted air passenger, transit and rail passenger all grew. The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for 26 months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 41st consecutive month. Trend: The August freight index increase was the second in a row, and was the fourth month without a decline, leaving the index 1.9% above the April level but 0.9% below February. This was only the fourth increase in the last twelve months, for an overall decrease of 1.8% since August 2022. It was the 14th month-over-month increase in the last 24 months, for a total increase of 3.3% since August 2021. The August Freight TSI is 11.7% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has increased month-over-month in 23 of the 40 months since that low. The index is now 1.8% below its previous record level of 141.1 set in August 2019, despite increasing month-over-month in 23 of the 48 months since that all-time high. For additional historical data, go to TSI data. Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in August 2023 (138.5) were 45.8% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The August 2023 level was 1.9% below the historic peak reached in August 2022 (141.2) (Table 1A). Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.2% in August compared to the end of 2022 (Table 3). Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 1.4% in the five years from August 2018 and are up 18.7% in the 10 years from August 2013 (Table 5). Same month of previous year: August 2023 for-hire freight shipments were down 1.9% from August 2022 (Tables 4, 5). The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the September 2023 index is scheduled for November 8, 2023. Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added. BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED. For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index. A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months.
Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since February 2023
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2023
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2020-2023
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2020-2023
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2014-2023
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information. NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Brief Explanation of the TSI The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service. The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation. The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).
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